Market insights. Research. Perspectives. Behind the scenes.
Issue 03 | January 2026
Hello there,
Happy New Year! As we step into 2026, many of the trends from 2025 are still in place, but with greater clarity around supply, refinancing pressure, and where returns can realistically be earned.
In this edition of The Steadfast View, we share a brief market overview, details on our recent acquisition of Oxbow Hill Country, operational updates at Estraya Boerne, and how we are thinking about apartment investing as 2026 begins.
1
What’s Happening in the Apartment Market?
Supply is rolling over faster than demand.
New apartment supply peaked in 2024 and has since fallen sharply, with 2026–2027 projected to be among the lowest delivery years in more than a decade. While leasing remains competitive in select markets today, new supply is declining faster than absorption is slowing, setting up gradual occupancy improvement as excess units are worked through. Future competition is becoming more predictable as fewer projects pencil at today’s rents and financing costs, improving cash-flow visibility once current lease-up pressure clears.
Rent growth is bottoming, but dispersion matters more than averages.
After sub-1% national rent growth in 2025, forecasts for 2026 cluster in the 1–3% range, with recovery led by markets where supply pipelines have thinned. Sun Belt markets with heavier recent deliveries remain uneven, even as select metros such as Austin and Dallas continue to post strong absorption, according to CBRE. By contrast, several coastal and Midwest markets are stabilizing sooner due to tighter supply conditions. In this environment, returns in 2026 will be driven less by headline rent growth and more by where supply has truly reset, how renewal demand holds, and how effectively assets are operated through a slower-growth phase.
Capital is coming back, but pricing still reflects caution.
Transaction volume improved in 2025 as financing conditions eased, yet much of today’s activity is tied to loan maturities rather than a broad return to risk. Pricing is resetting to align with current debt costs and income, creating opportunities where capital structures no longer fit otherwise operationally sound assets. In this environment, returns are generally favoring conservative leverage and underwriting to today’s cash flow.
With rent growth expected to remain modest and financing structures leaving less room for error, outcomes will depend on how well individual assets generate cash flow and support their debt.
2
Behind the Scenes at Steadfast
Our new acquisition | Oxbow Hill Country
Earlier this month, Steadfast acquired Oxbow Hill Country, a 172-unit garden-style community in Boerne, Texas. The property sits in a supply-constrained Hill Country submarket and reflects the type of opportunity we are prioritizing in the current environment. At acquisition, occupancy was below stabilized levels, and the focus is on strengthening on-site execution and positioning the asset for long-term performance. As Bill Stoll, the Chief Investment Officer noted, this was a situation where the capital structure needed attention.
While not offered through Steadfast Direct, the transaction reflects the same underwriting approach and market selection criteria used across the platform.
We’re excited to welcome Lauren Ojeda as the new Community Manager at Estraya Boerne. Lauren brings more than 20 years of multifamily experience, with a strong background in affordable and workforce housing operations.
Estraya was acquired in late 2024 at approximately 78% occupancy and has since stabilized, currently operating at 94.1% occupancy. With the asset on firmer footing, the focus in 2026 shifts toward consistency, resident retention, and income quality rather than lease-up execution.
Lauren will build on this foundation alongside the existing on-site team, with an emphasis on resident experience, operational follow-through, and long-term performance. As she shared with us, “I believe everything is figureoutable, and I look forward to increasing occupancy, income, and resident retention in 2026.”
This next phase at Estraya reflects Steadfast’s approach to ownership: steady execution, aligned teams, and attention to the details that protect performance over time.
Investors in Estraya received their 6.5% quarterly distribution this month.
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This email is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Any securities offerings will be made only to persons who are verified as Accredited Investors, pursuant to Regulation D, Rule 506(c), of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and only through the delivery of definitive offering documents, including a Private Placement Memorandum. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements contained herein are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Prospective investors should consult their legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decision.
Steadfast Direct is the business name used by Steadfast Investment Management LLC.
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